After having experienced a drastic fall in the two previous quarters, Brent prices could go up again from this third quarter, reaching between 35 and 45 dollars per barrel. An uptrend that gives hope to the country, whose 2020 budget collective is based on the assumption of a barrel at 25 dollars.
The outlook for the oil market in the third quarter of 2020 will potentially be influenced by a global economic environment fraught with uncertainty. During the meeting of the fixed prices of hydrocarbons produced in the Republic of Congo, held on July 24 in Kintélé, the northern suburb of Brazzaville, the experts referred to the hazards linked to the coronavirus pandemic; at the overall level of demand; compliance with OPEC quotas; at the level of world stock and refining; Chinese imports, including tensions between international powers.
Faced with these fluctuations, the Congolese government decided in April to revise its budget forecasts by half, by putting in place mechanisms to restore budgetary balances. According to the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Jean-Marc Thystère Tchicaya, these measures go in the direction of ensuring the sustainability of public revenues.
“During the month of March, prices per barrel fell drastically, followed by instability reaching a low of 16 dollars for a barrel of Brent. Since May, thanks to the help of members of OPEC and OPEC +, the uptrend has given a glimmer of hope, “he said.
In total, eleven Congolese oil and gas companies took part in the meeting to fix the price of hydrocarbons. The minister in charge took the opportunity to invite them to improve their policies in terms of exploration, exploitation and marketing of black gold, which remains the main resource of the Congolese state.
He also insisted on the importance of preserving jobs, investments, as well as compliance with new legislation and fixed barrel prices.
Note that in the first quarter of 2020, the average fixed prices for hydrocarbons produced in Congo are $ 47.8 per barrel, for an average differential of $ 0.4 per barrel. In the second quarter, the average fixed price of hydrocarbons is 27 dollars per barrel, for an average differential of -2.8 dollars.
