The economic horizon is darkening for Gabon; the 5th oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, the 2nd African producer of wood and world leader of manganese, according to the latest projections published by the African Development Bank on July 16, and examined under two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic.
Nothing is rosy for Rose Christiane Ossouka Raponda! The African Development Bank (Bad) says Gabon is expected to experience a growth loss of around 7.5 percentage points in 2020, under the pessimistic scenario. Its budget deficits are expected to widen by 6.2 percentage points and 14.7 percentage points of GDP respectively. Similarly, the economy will be hit by inflation of 0.9 point or 1.6 point, depending on the optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.
According to forecasts from the African Development Bank, the health crisis linked to Covid-19 should lead to a slowdown in the process of diversification and industrialization, given the decline in public revenues and the containment measures linked to the effects of this pandemic. However, the economists of the Bad assure that “the strategy of diversification of the national economy, if it is seriously implemented should allow the development of new sectors of activity, mainly in the food industry”.
For the continental bank, the main recommendations for economic policies in Central Africa should consist in taking appropriate health and economic measures, in order to contain the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on countries. It also requires the consolidation of peace, security and stability; strengthening economic governance by pursuing efforts to consolidate the macroeconomic framework and the business climate, to promote economic diversification, invest in infrastructure and improve domestic resource mobilization.
These economic projections will undoubtedly have an impact on the new Prime Minister’s room for maneuver, in the face of strong social demand.
