The Cameroonian government is planning a gradual decline in inflation to reach the community threshold of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) by 2026-2027. Although inflation has climbed to 7.4% in 2023, the Ministry of Finance’s forecasts are optimistic, despite pressures on food and fuel prices.
Over the past two years, inflation in Cameroon has been rising significantly, mainly affecting food prices and transport costs. In 2023, the inflation rate reached 7.4%, an increase from 6.3% in 2022. The determining factors are the surge in food prices, with an increase of 10.9%, as well as a rise in transport costs of 15%, caused by the increase in fuel prices and trade difficulties.
For 2024, the Ministry of Finance anticipates continued high inflation, due to the increase in fuel prices at the pump, implemented since February. This increase has already had a direct impact on transport costs and, indirectly, on the prices of everyday consumer products.
Despite this inflationary trend, Cameroon is planning a gradual deceleration. According to the Ministry of Finance’s 2025-2027 Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document, inflation is expected to fall from 7% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, to approach the CEMAC threshold of 3% between 2026 and 2027. This outlook represents an ambitious objective for Cameroon, the leading contributor to consumption within CEMAC with 52% of the regional total.
In September 2024, the National Institute of Statistics published data showing a 0.4% increase in household consumer prices compared to the previous month. This increase is mainly due to the increase in food prices (+1.1%). Compared to August 2023, annual inflation increased by 3.8%, while transport costs recorded an impressive increase of 10.7% year-on-year. Although these figures still reflect price tensions, a downward trend has been emerging since the end of 2023.
To contain inflation, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), responsible for monetary policy in the CEMAC countries, is adopting a cautious stance. In September 2024, it maintained its key rates for the sixth consecutive time, underlining its desire to stabilize the regional economy in the face of inflationary pressures. According to the BEAC, inflation in CEMAC is expected to fall to 4.2% this year, with the hope of reaching the 3% threshold as early as 2025, although variations between countries remain significant.
The challenge for Cameroon is to control inflation while supporting economic growth. The government appears determined to take the necessary measures to control the situation, while acknowledging the impact of commodity costs. If the optimistic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance materialize, the country can hope for a return to price stability, which could provide relief to households and encourage economic recovery.
