Deprived of a joint financial windfall estimated at $555 million, the final blow from American leader Donald Trump, despite the consequences, should push the African Development Fund (ADF ), the concessional arm of the African Development Bank, to take a further step in the search for new financing mechanisms.
The new US administration’s 360° turnaround will play a significant role in reviving structural reforms at the African level. This US effort to refocus its budget includes a $49 billion reduction in international aid, which will be redirected to Uncle Sam’s defense and security spending. Several scenarios are available for continental institutions, including the African Development Fund.
As the African Development Bank prepares to launch the 17th replenishment of the ADF’s resources for 2026–2028, the objective is to mobilize $25 billion. Directly accessing the capital market would be a strategic avenue, which experts believe would allow the capture of no less than $27 billion. Akinwumi Adesina, the outgoing President of the AfDB, has over time deemed the approach credible, with a model structured around the AfDB’s AAA-rated parent company and the presence of permanent contributing countries such as Germany, France, Japan, and Canada.
Alongside direct access to the capital market, strengthening regional dynamics would be a significant asset. A call repeated in May 2024 in Nairobi by Kenyan President William Ruto. During the AfDB’s annual meetings during the period under review, the statesman announced a contribution of $20 million from his country. He immediately recalled the urgent need to “believe for Africans in their own institutions.” This demonstrated belief, which over time has helped attract further financing in countries such as Benin ($2 million), Sudan ($3 million), Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
With financing needs estimated at approximately $402 billion per year until 2030, according to the African Development Bank, it would be wise to strengthen the existing partial credit guarantees offered by the African Development Fund. Indeed, these guarantees greatly help some African countries reduce their borrowing costs on the markets, particularly for commercial loans. Thanks to these partial credit guarantees, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Rwanda, and Togo have been able to gradually address challenges in infrastructure, energy transition, health, and education.
